At a time of historically high political violence in the U.S., a substantial number of Americans doubt the legitimacy of recent attempts against President Trump's life.
Trump has been the subject of three assassination attempts over the last two years, however, a NewsGuard/YouGov poll released Monday finds that 30% of Americans think at least one of those incidents was staged.
The findings come just weeks after a gunman allegedly attempted to storm the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump was in attendance, but was stopped at a security checkpoint by law enforcement before reaching the main ballroom. In the weeks since, a wave of misinformation around the event has spread online.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Americans between April 28 through May 4 and asked about the shooting at the correspondents' dinner, the assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Penn. in July of 2024 and the attempt on his life that fall while golfing in West Palm Beach.
When given the options of "true," "false" or "not sure," and asked whether each of the incidents "was staged," a majority of respondents said they thought each event was either staged or said they were unsure. A plurality — roughly 45% — said each was a "real attempt."
One in four respondents believed the attempted attack at the correspondents' dinner was staged, according to the poll. The same was true for Butler, where 24% of respondents believed the attack was staged. Sixteen percent felt the same about the foiled plot in West Palm Beach.
Those views came despite numerous witnesses in Butler and Washington, D.C., and detailed federal indictments against the suspects in the Florida plot and the shooting at the dinner. A Senate committee investigated the attack in Butler after a Secret Service sniper killed the perpetrator, and put out an exhaustive report detailing security failures at the rally.
Sofia Rubinson is a senior editor at NewsGuard, which tracks false claims that spread online. Claims posted on X within the week after the dinner garnered over 90 million views, she said.
"There's really not a lot of evidence that these social media users are citing or relying on," she said. "It's really just this belief and this distrust that the government is acting honestly and is giving us accurate information."
During an interview with 60 Minutes the day after the dinner, Trump dismissed claims that the incident was staged.
"I think they're more sick than they are con people," Trump said, alluding to individuals pushing such conspiracy theories. "But there's a lot of con in there too."
The new poll finds that doubts about the assassination attempts are far more concentrated among younger Americans and Democrats.
According to the poll, Americans 18-29 were the most likely of any generation to believe all three events were staged.
It's a sentiment also more pronounced on the left, with 21% of Democrats feeling that way, seven times more than Republicans. When asked about all three incidents, larger shares of Democrats say each event was staged, with 34% saying that about the correspondents' dinner, 42% about Butler and 26% about Trump's golf club.
Though Republicans were less likely to think the events were fabricated, Rubinson notes a striking increase in the number of GOP voters who think the shooting at the dinner was staged — 13% — compared to the events at Butler (7%) and Trump's golf club (7%.)
"Still [a] much smaller percentage than Democrats. But we're seeing that Republicans are increasingly more likely to believe this, 'staged,' narrative," she said.
Rubinson acknowledged that while it's difficult to definitively explain that increase, it could be because of a "splintering" within Trump's movement over issues like the administration's handling of the Epstein files as well as the war with Iran.
"A lot of the traditional MAGA base is … maybe growing increasingly discontent with the Trump administration and more prone to believing these types of conspiracies."
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